colored lines and stuff

xo · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2003 10:24 pm Post subject: colored lines and stuff

Previously, on As the Newsgroups Turn: abmar had witnessed a meteoric rise and had sustained a wide margin over activity in aba/abma. Meanwhile, abma had finally wrestled control away from evil twin cousin aba. Could abmar maintain its torrid pace? Would aba be able to fight back?

Here's the latest: http://abma.x-maru.org/~xo/plots

Very shortly after that last analysis, abmar bottomed out. The bezier smoothed masks the dramatic drop, so look at the cspline plot - around early June it went from ~35 to closer to 20 just like that.

The knee-jerk explanation is the school-effect. But, looking at older data for same time last year http://abma.x-maru.org/~xo/archive/, there was no real summer drop off- just a lull in the growth rate.

I guess the next month or so will give us a more definitive answer: the kids should pretty much all be back in school by now. So far, there hasn't been an uptick.

And yeah, the gap between abma and aba has widened.

This episode was brought to you by Postgres and Gnuplot. Two great tastes that taste great together!

And matt, keeper of all data. If I were maintaining an anime/Usenet related web site, matt, I'd be asking for donations or threatening to shut down.

Wait a second...

-xo

Gorunova · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2003 10:49 pm Post subject: Re: colored lines and stuff

xo · Posted: Mon Sep 22, 2003 11:12 pm Post subject: Re: colored lines and stuff

Jiss · Joined: 19 Feb 2002 Posts: 36 Location: Somewhere cold

As already mentioned. This would be interesting to see in a couple of years time.

I imagine, from knowing how ng's work and specifically from experience with anime ones that it is largely down to only a small minority who post the most. If one or two drop out as happens then this would have a significant impact on figures. Here we are looking at a very localised environment and again, from what I know the reasons for leaving tend to be varied.

It would be interesting if we can find any trends (like regulars leaving when mass posters/spammers etc arrive - which, sorry to say, coincides with student term times).

The rise and fall of ABMAR is unusual as well. I wonder if this coincides with the increase in reposts under ABA/ABMA (especially those for Australia and of course our very own ftd friends).

xo · Posted: Sat Sep 27, 2003 12:24 am Post subject:

Here's another plot, this time from the official start of data keeping in the current regime (2001-10-22) to the 2003-09-20.

http://abma.x-maru.org/~xo/long/

The bezier-smoothed plot is easiest to look at for this long term data. The current slump in numbers appears to have trended starting about April of this year. Compare this to the same period in 2002 - numbers were flat until mid-summer, when it started skyrocketing.

I'm really curious to know know what factors are playing a role here. When did animesuki come online? scarywater?

-xo

Keikai · Joined: 18 Feb 2002 Posts: 178 Location: Miami, FL

On a less relevant note, I love both the name of this thread and the name bestowed upon the benevolent and omniscient matt... Keeper of All Data!

Razz

(inc) · Joined: 18 Feb 2002 Posts: 356 Location: San Diego

A thought on the aba/abma peaks in Oct/Nov... The new season starts for 26 ep series (just watched the end of Stellvia which made be think of it). Of course for certain new shows 3 to 4 (or 5 or 6...) subbing groups might start them then slowly fall by the way-side. Looking at the graphs I can semi-convince myself there is another peak ~Apr/May.

Also, some of the rise of abma over aba would be due to the AUS posts, unless they're being filtered out of the data.

(inc)